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Prediction for CME (2024-05-15T10:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-15T10:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30940/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NNE in all coronagraphs. Observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 as a loop centered over an unnumbered region on the disk ~N35E35. This loop slowly begins rising around 2024-05-16T06:30Z before before explosively erupting and breaking around 2024-05-16T09:15Z. A broad area of dimming to the N and E of this area is observed in SDO AIA 193 with the eruption, a double ribbon flare is observed in SDO AIA 304 underneath this loop, and a post-eruptive arcade starts forming around 2024-05-16T10:09Z. No clear CME arrival signature found in real time solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-19T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-15T16:32Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 630
Longitude (deg): 02W
Latitude (deg): 43N
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes: Very slight chance of a glancing impact from this CME. 
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 16.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-18T07:15Z

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